IMLInvestment
Model Library

Worked synthetic example

One active-return series, two different summaries

Inspect sample tracking error and an annualized arithmetic information ratio without turning a short synthetic sample into performance evidence.

Keep the paired observations

The hypothetical portfolio returns are 0.02, -0.01, 0.03 and 0.01. The corresponding reference returns are 0.01, -0.02, 0.02 and 0.015. Treat them as four aligned monthly periods for this calculation only. There is no actual fund, benchmark instrument or historical observation date. Their differences are 0.01, 0.01, 0.01 and -0.005.

The arithmetic mean difference is 0.00625. This is not the difference between the two compounded terminal wealth values, and it is not a money-weighted investor return. The card uses an additive active-return definition, which is preserved in the export together with both original arrays.

Inspect the sample dispersion

The three positive differences each lie 0.00375 above the mean; the final difference lies 0.01125 below it. The sum of squared deviations is 0.00016875. Dividing by three, not four, produces sample variance 0.00005625 and sample standard deviation 0.0075. A population denominator would produce a different statistic, not a more accurate version of the same stated calculation.

Annualization adds an assumption

Multiplying period tracking error by the square root of twelve gives approximately 0.0259808. Dividing the mean active return by period tracking error gives 0.8333333; multiplying that ratio by the same square root gives about 2.8867513. The large numerical ratio is unsurprising in a deliberately constructed tiny sample. It does not imply demonstrated investment skill.

The square-root scaling needs a suitable dependence and stationarity interpretation. Four observations do not become twelve observed periods because the output is labelled annualized. A serious evaluation would examine window selection, benchmark relevance, serial dependence, costs, uncertainty and the number of alternatives considered. None of those questions is resolved by these two summary numbers.

The zero-denominator control

A second arithmetic control sets portfolio and benchmark returns equal. Tracking error becomes zero and the information ratio is withheld as null. The reference does not manufacture an infinite score or convert the undefined ratio to zero. This treatment is visible in the model card and executable tests. Both the valid example and the control are software-correctness checks; neither is a new independent sample of strategy performance.

Four invented monthly observations, used solely to reconcile formulas and annualization.
StatisticSynthetic valueConvention
Mean active return0.00625Arithmetic mean
Tracking error0.0075Sample n-1 standard deviation
Annualized tracking error0.0259807621Square-root twelve scaling
Annualized information ratio2.8867513459Mean / sample dispersion times sqrt(12)

Reproduce the referenced calculations

Primary references

These sources support methods and conventions. The example values are original constructions, not observations extracted from these documents.

Related investigations

Risk measurement

Tracking error needs an explicit convention

Distinguish centered active-return volatility from tracking difference, root-mean-square deviation and forward risk estimates, with explicit sample and annualization choices.

Validation examples

The denominator defines the information ratio

Keep active-return means and tracking error on compatible scales, and separate a large historical ratio from evidence about repeatable performance.

Validation examples

Out-of-sample evidence and multiple testing

Separate chronological evaluation from repeated model selection, and quantify how a hypothetical search across many null tests changes the chance of a false discovery.